Introducing En-ROADS, a climate solutions simulator

By Kevin Batson, Williston Energy Committee - Jan 25, 2024

On Jan. 3, Gov. Phil Scott announced a joint effort to develop a comprehensive climate Resilience Implementation Strategy by July 1, 2025.

The hope is to have a balanced plan that addresses both reducing greenhouse gases and adapting to the consequences of climate change.

Adaptation is a large and expensive necessity that could have been avoided if action on climate change had been taken before the effects were being felt. The increasingly frequent and more severe storms, hotter summers and shorter winter snow seasons will only become more frequent, more severe and more expensive the longer we delay taking action to address the root causes of climate change.

At this late date, it is essential that we choose the most cost-effective, impactful climate solutions to incorporate into the effort being developed. One extremely useful tool that anyone can use to help and make sure our representatives are choosing the best solutions is En-ROADS.

The En-ROADS Climate Solutions Simulator is a superb, easy-to-use, fast and powerful climate solutions scenario tool that anyone can use to understand how we can achieve our climate goals through changes in energy, land use, consumption, agriculture and other policies. A web search of “en-roads” brings you to the www.climateinteractive.org website where you can select the “Explore the En-Roads Simulator” bar. There you can use the interactive simulator’s 18 slide bars to see how changes in energy sourcing, transportation, buildings, industrial efficiency, land, food and industrial emissions, growth in population and GDP, and carbon capture affect temperature increase and net greenhouse gas emissions over time.

Additionally, for each of the 18 slide bars, you can adjust basic assumptions such as start/end dates, pricing mechanisms and utilization percentages. The simulator’s default setting is the present status quo.

Developed by Climate Interactive, the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative and Ventana Systems, En-ROADS is a system dynamics model carefully grounded in the best available science. It has been calibrated against a wide range of existing integrated assessment, climate and energy models.

If we continue the present track, not taking additional steps to address the climate, the model predicts a temperature increase of 3.3 degrees Celsius by 2100. This is more than twice the increase climate scientists say will avoid the catastrophic effects of climate change. If the Inflation Reduction Act initiatives are fully realized, there is hope we will be able to come close to achieving the target of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The takeaway from using the En-Roads simulator is that it is possible to reach our climate goals, but it will require a multifaceted approach. Each of the slide bars only changes the outcome by, at most, tenths of a degree. We can use the simulator to understand which strategies have the largest impact, then take action in our personal lives and push our local and national elected officials and our business leaders to implement equitable and high-leverage climate solutions.

You may want to consider joining Sustainable Williston or the Citizens Climate Lobby, which is a bipartisan, national organization that uses En-ROADS and speaks regularly to Congress members about enacting climate solutions. You can also contact your representatives directly, so they know addressing climate change is a priority.

To take corrective action and reverse the effects of climate change, we all need to take responsibility and not just expect someone else will fix the problem for us.

 To participate in Williston’s energy future, reach out to your Williston Energy Committee at energy@willistonvt.org or attend a public meeting held on the second and fourth Wednesday of each month. The agenda for upcoming meetings is posted on the Town of Williston website (www.town.williston.vt.us). For more information, visit:  https://www.willistonvtenergycommittee.org